Conclusion

We have found evidence that some seabirds, especially Razorbills, are changing, and experienced a dramatic unprecedented extension of their winter range in late 2012, and probably suffered a large loss of population that winter. We have found evidence of changes in the ocean, especially water temperature, plankton, and several fish species. We have found some apparent correlations between Razorbill changes and changes in other components of their marine ecosystem. We have found some fish data supporting our hypothesis, but hope to find more as it becomes available publicly (2012 is a recent year, and some of that data is not yet published).  We have not done a rigorous statistical analysis on the data which we do have (partly because the data we have it is not very standardized/normalized), and we cant yet prove any causality, but we are getting a more complete picture of what probably happened in 2012, at least in the northern GOM, around Grand Manan and the Bay Of Fundy. At least we are heading toward a plausible theory, one which can hopefully be tested more over the next few years with more data, research and analysis. We have an increased communication and collaboration with marine scientists in various areas. And we have an improved understanding of the marine ecosystem in the GOM, including one of our favorite seabirds, Razorbill, the closest relative of the Great Auk, which went extinct around 1850.

Having a better evidence-based understanding of our natural and human ecosystems may also help us if society has to make some future decisions to help our environment stay in balance.